Miracle hopes run dry: April snowpack gives bleak outlook

While the month of March saw a handful of storms that brought rain and snow to the region, the results were far from anything close to being what is known as a "March Miracle," the one thing many were hopeful of to avoid drought conditions ahead. In their most important snowpack survey of the year last week, state water officials were faced with the reality that California's snowpack statewide is just 53 percent of its historical average. Those numbers are only expected to go down from here. In a normal season, the Sierra snowpack reaches its peak levels and water content by late March or the start of April. That spring measurement is vital in providing water officials a forecast of exactly how much runoff will be forthcoming to determine the management of dam releases for storage and management of the supply of drinking water, river life, irrigation and agriculture. This year, such releases will be far from commonplace. The months ahead will surely be requiring increased conservation measures and limited recreation opportunities on Folsom Lake as the region heads back into near drought conditions in the weeks ahead. "California's climate continues to show extreme unpredictability and February's record dryness is a clear example of the extremes associated with climate change," Department of Water Resources director Karla Nemeth said. In the central and northern half of the state, the number is slightly better at 56 percent, while the southern Sierra snowpack is only 45 percent of average. "Last year, we had the fifth best snowpack in recorded history. This year, we have the 11th worst," Chris Orrock with the Department of Water Resources said. "Look at the last four years. 2016 was the end of the drought. 2017 was the wettest year on record. 2018 was below average. Last year, huge year, great snowpack. And then this year well below average as well. I think we're going to keep seeing that wet to dry, wet to dry." The snowpack typically provides a third of California's water supply and is often referred to as the state's largest reservoir, holding water in the high country until it slowly melts and fills reservoirs into the hotter, drier months. Those dry and warm months are already off to an early start. "In the past 10 years, we've seen three of our smallest snowpacks on record, but we've also seen three of our largest snowpacks on record," the Department of Water Resources 's Sean de Guzman said at last week's survey. Snow surveyors are most interested in what is called the snow water equivalent, a number that tells them how much water is held in a column of snow once it has melted. An average column of snow currently holds about 15 inches of water. The runoff tops off the state's reservoirs in the spring, but it also continues to backfill the lakes as water is released in early summer months. The water currently in the low reservoirs, such as Folsom Lake, is much due to the fact that 2019 had an abundance of precipitation and a whopping snowpack. 2021 is not so fortunate. "That snowpack was very cold, so it slowly melted off and put that water into our reservoirs," Orrock said. "They didn't have to release it for flood control. So, our reservoirs are still doing really well." Folsom Lake currently reports 345,609 acre feet of water between its shores. That amount is just 64 percent of where it should be for this time of year and just over a third of the lake's capacity. The surface elevation of the lake is at 394.76 feet above sea level, meaning boaters need to adhere to a 5-mph speed limit across the entire lake, a condition that normally only occurs annually in the late summer or fall. While Folsom Lake's primary purpose is to provide a water supply to the Central Valley, it also is a popular destination for boating, fishing and recreation. While fishing will require a longer hike to the shore, the outlook on boating is dismal. Boaters who rent a slip at the Folsom Lake Marina are still waiting to find out if they will even be able to put their boats in the water there this year. As of Monday afternoon, the office at Browns Ravine, as well as the docks, were resting on mud. "The Bureau of Reclamation's latest update does not paint a good picture for boating at Folsom Lake," reads the latest statement posted on the marina's website. "A few weeks ago, it was thought that slip renters could be in the slips until the middle of July. A week ago, it changed to the middle of June. Today, without some major storms in the Sierras, boats may not be able to return to the slips at all." Water levels at the lake will rise but how long that water will last is the question when the Sierra runoff runs out. "That snow is starting to melt earlier than it normally would. That was the benefit of 2019 — the snow stayed up there through July 4 and slowly melted off and refilled our reservoirs. This year, we are probably not going to see that," said Orrock. Even when the speed limit is lifted on the lake, boaters are urged to use caution with many shallow obstacles lurking just below the surface. Thus far, Gov. Gavin Newsom has refrained from talking about the possibility of another drought or announcing anything of such nature. As residents pass by Folsom Lake or see images, it raises concern of available drinking water for the months ahead. The Department of Water Resources officials want to remind everyone that, while the lake and the American River are the primary source for the annual water supply, the combination of those only provides half of the area's water supply and that groundwater makes up the difference (see related story). While conservation measures will be imminent, officials want the community to be assured that there will be ample water ahead. Folsom and the Sacramento Valley are not alone when it comes to low reservoirs. Jenkinson Lake in the El Dorado National Forest covers 650 acres and holds a lot of water, but a dry Northern California winter has drastically impacted the water level. Jenkinson Lake holds 41,000 acre-feet of water when full but is currently holding significantly less. "The rainfall is a little bit less. The snowmelt is not where it has been in the past," said Jesse Saich with the El Dorado Irrigation District. Although the dry winter is affecting water levels, Saich noted, there is a solution. The El Dorado Irrigation District can divert snowmelt from the Sierra through two tunnel systems leading into Jenkinson Lake to help fill it back up. "We're using all the ways in which we can divert water from higher up in the Sierra into the lake to ensure our customers have plenty," Saich said. The Folsom Telegraph will continue to follow this developing story as the region prepares for extremely dry conditions ahead.