Seeding the playoffs: A deep dive into how the Sac-Joaquin Section decides brackets

All the buzz right now on the prep football scene is the playoffs and how the Sac-Joaquin Section will go about seedings and pairings when the brackets come out Sunday afternoon. There are changes to the postseason, as it marks the first year teams don't have to play up to the division their league is in if they win the league. For teams like Placer, which won the Foothill Valley League title, it can stay down in Division IV despite winning a D-III league. This is a unique year in that heading into the final week of the regular season, playoff seedings are as murky as ever. The playoff committee doesn't select the teams that make the playoffs. That is determined by the CalPreps computer rankings of teams that reach at least four wins, but it does determine where each team lines up on the bracket, and that is where things can get tricky. The committee weighs things like strength of schedule, league championships, head-to-head matchups and more to generate as close to a perfect bracket as possible across all seven divisions. "Head-to-head is always pretty heavily weighted. If you have two schools that are right next to each other in the rankings, whether it's a four or five or a five, six, you're going to always find an argument for either side," Sac-Joaquin Section Assistant Commissioner Will DeBoard said. "When these schools are very close to each other, we've always looked at the head to head." That bodes well for Placer, which likely locked up a first-round bye in D-IV with a win over West Park last week. Unfortunately for the Panthers, there is not much they can do Friday night that would give them a bye, which means they will have to play one extra game on their path to a section championship. It also benefits Colfax, which has a non-league win over Union Mine. The schools are similar in ranking, but because the Falcons won their matchup, they will likely get the nod for a higher seed even though Union Mine will finish with a better record and higher ranking. The head-to-head factor also makes the looming River Bowl matchup between Colfax and Bear River and Junction Bowl matchup between Roseville and Woodcreek much more compelling. The winner between Colfax and Bear River likely gets a home game, with the loser having to hit the road. For Woodcreek and Roseville, the matchup could be the decisive factor in which school gets a bye and which one has to play in the opening round. While league champions are rewarded with an automatic playoff berth, not all leagues are created equal and a fourth- or fifth-place finish in a league like the Sierra Foothill League would be more favorable to a second-place finish in a weaker league. "If you finish in first place in your league, you are automatically going to the playoffs," DeBoard said. "After that, we determine our 12 playoff teams in each bracket and there may be four league champs in there, there may be eight league champs in there. It really is different for each division." One team that could be impacted by that is Foothill, which is in first place in the Greater Sacramento League but could have to hit the road in the first round, as it is projected by MaxPreps as the ninth seed in D-V. "There are some league champs that are most likely going to be on the road," DeBoard said, noting there are some on the seeding committee that are in favor of giving league champions home games. Winning a league title is considered, however, and can be a decisive factor when two teams are fighting for a home game or bye. "If there's a really close call to be made and you know, like an eight versus a nine or sometimes even like a four versus a five, that's where being a league champ kind of helps a little bit," DeBoard said. Strength of schedule is also a factor the seeding committee weighs heavily, and it can create several contentious debates when the brackets are being made. One of the most contentious topics is who gets the top seed in Division V between Twelve Bridges and Casa Roble. The upstart Raging Rhinos could finish 10-0 with a win Friday night over Marysville, while a Casa Roble win would have the Rams sitting at 9-1 with their lone loss to Del Oro. While Casa Roble's gauntlet of a non-league schedule also included Placer and West Park, it plays in a weak league whereas Twelve Bridges played a weak non-league schedule but plays in a Pioneer Valley League that is projected to have six of its seven teams make the playoffs. "I think that's going to be a really interesting and probably long argument come Sunday," DeBoard said of the battle for the top seed. DeBoard added both teams have a strong case to be the top dog in the division. "I can tell you right now that if Twelve Bridges is undefeated, that's a pretty good argument to be the top seed. They won all 10 of their games," DeBoard said. "But for Casa, they've had a tougher schedule and probably some nicer wins. That's a pretty good argument as well. I think that's gonna be an interesting discussion and I totally couldn't tell you how that's gonna go." Another factor in the seeding matchups is avoiding league battles in the first round. The committee does its best to avoid them and will bump a team to a different seed line if it has to. This will be something to watch for in Division IV, as it means West Park will not face Ponderosa or Nevada Union in the opening round. Should Del Oro lose this week and have to go on the road in the opening round in Division II, it will not have to play Granite Bay. League matchups in the quarterfinals are not uncommon, however, which means Placer could host West Park and Vista del Lago could host Rio Americano for the second time in one month in D-IV. "We do everything we possibly can to avoid league matchups in the first round," DeBoard said. "We also want to keep the integrity of the bracket, but we do what we can to avoid that." With 10 games in the regular season, the committee doesn't look at winning or losing streaks heading into the postseason. That could help a team like Del Oro, which is 0-4 in the SFL play but is still projected to play a home game in the first round. "What we ultimately try to do is seed teams in the spot from what they have earned throughout their entire season," DeBoard said. "We are aware of whether or not a team is on a nice winning streak, or if a team has lost a bunch of games late, but ultimately, we try to seed teams by what they have earned throughout the year." With 84 teams making the playoffs across seven divisions, making the brackets can be daunting and the reality is somebody somewhere is going to feel they got screwed, but at the end of they day, to be a section champion, teams are going to have to beat the other teams in the bracket no matter when or where they meet up. "That's the great thing about sports," DeBoard said. "We have upsets and sometimes we may have four or five teams that are all ranked about the same and it gets tough. It means somebody probably gets a home game and somebody else probably gets bought bulletin board material."