The need to strengthen the California State Guard

The California State Guard (CSG), not to be confused with the National Guard units located in California, is one of the country's 20 active state guard units. As authorized by federal law, the state guards report only to their respective governors, and not to the president. The CSG now comprises about 900 troops, many of whom serve concurrently in Army or Air National Guard units. They are paid only when activated (by the state and not the federal government), typically to support National Guard units or assist with emergencies. Recently, the Department of Justice announced it would be sending federal election observers to monitor the Nov. 4 elections in four counties in Southern California and one in New Jersey. This action may presage further federal interventions in next year's elections. More significant, President Trump has stated several times he would like to have a third term, in clear violation of the Constitution. He clearly intends to keep control of the federal government for as long as he can. Because of his increasingly negative ratings, his biggest fear is losing control of one or both Houses of Congress in the next year's elections. To avoid that, Trump could foment and then repress rebellions in one or more large blue states, using federalized National Guard or regular Army troops, as he has already done in many largely Democratic cities. If he did so next year, he could declare emergencies, invoke martial law without congressional approval and postpone elections indefinitely by using the military to block or close polls and destroy mail-in ballots. While these illegal actions would certainly be challenged in court, given the number of appeals possible and the current makeup of the Supreme Court, the final outcome would be uncertain. It would surely delay certification of final election results. If certified results were not available by the time the new Congress is scheduled to convene in late January 2027, the situation would be murky at best. Normally, the Clerk of the House calls Congress to order, and as the first order of business supervises the election of the Speaker. But since only certified Congress persons-elect are permitted to vote for Speaker, the Clerk would have to reject the right to vote for Speaker of any individuals who claimed to represent states whose elections had not occurred. The resulting newly elected Speaker and Congress would be at least as sympathetic to the Trump regime as is the current Congress. The new Speaker could refuse to give the oath of office and thereby reject proposed delegates from states that had not yet held elections he deemed valid. What could the state governors do about it? If no changes are made, probably not much. But by taking decisive action before next fall, states like California could strongly discourage any of the shenanigans outlined above. In particular, Governor Newsom should recruit as many new personnel to the CSG as possible. Furthermore, Newsom should prohibit all CSG personnel from serving concurrently in the National Guard. Troops cannot serve two masters. Having a significant state guard willing to confront federal forces attempting to execute clearly illegal or unconstitutional demands by a president would strongly discourage such demands. Of course, any state guard could be defeated by armed federal military forces, but merely standing strong in opposition to federal forces would make a very strong statement. We must remember that 250 years ago, American colonists risked their lives to fight against England, the strongest military power of the time, and prevailed. A standoff between state and federal forces, with or without casualties, might induce other states, including some red states, to judge that this administration had finally gone too far. Ultimately, the creation of strong independent state guards could facilitate the end of the current autocratic regime. Dr. Roughgarden is a retired economist and mechanical engineer with degrees from the University of Pennsylvania and Stanford University.